How to Use This Tool
Build your peak hour from the fixtures that actually run together, then compare it with the first-hour rating of the heater you are considering. Tank size on its own tells you almost nothing.
Only about 70 per cent of a tank is usable
As hot water leaves the top of the tank, cold water enters the bottom to replace it. The two mix, and long before the tank is empty the water coming out is too cool to use. The usable fraction is around 70 per cent, so a 50 gallon tank delivers about 35 gallons of genuinely hot water.
FHR = tank x 0.70 + recovery per hour
40 gal, gas 40 x 0.70 + 60 = 28 + 60 = 88
50 gal, electric 50 x 0.70 + 40 = 35 + 40 = 75
80 gal, slow 80 x 0.70 + 25 = 56 + 25 = 81
peak hour: 2 showers, hand wash, dishwasher
2 x 8 min x 2.0 gpm = 32
hand washing = 2
dishwasher = 6
= 40 gal
Recovery rate is why fuel matters more than size
A gas burner reheats far faster than a resistive element, so gas units are routinely specified two sizes smaller than electric ones for the same household. If you are switching fuel, carrying the old tank size across is a mistake in one direction or the other.
Peak hour, not daily total
A household might use 200 gallons a day and never run out, because it is spread across sixteen hours. The same household running two showers and a dishwasher between seven and eight in the morning can empty a heater that is comfortably sized on daily consumption. Size the busiest hour.
A long shower is the dominant term and the easiest to change: eight minutes at 2.0 gpm is 16 gallons, but the same shower at 2.5 gpm is 20, and twelve minutes at 2.5 is 30 — nearly a bath.
Aim for headroom, not an exact match
The usual advice is a first-hour rating at or slightly above your peak hour. Matching it exactly leaves nothing for a guest, a cold incoming supply in winter, or a heater that has lost some capacity to scale. Ten to twenty per cent over is sensible; far more than that means paying to keep water hot that nobody uses.
What this does not decide
Tankless units have no storage at all and are rated by flow at a given temperature rise, which is a different calculation and depends heavily on incoming water temperature. Heat pump water heaters have a recovery rate that varies with ambient air temperature. Both need their own sizing.
