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📊 Math & Statistics

Two 20% Rises Make 44%, and Up 20 Then Down 20 Leaves You Down 4

Percentages multiply, they do not add. Apply a sequence of changes and see where you actually end up, including what it takes to recover a loss.

Final value

Total change

compounded, not added

If you just added

the common mistake

Per-period average

the equivalent steady rate

Step by step

What it takes to recover a loss

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How the calculation works

Up 20%, then down 20%. You are not back where you started. 100 start +20% 120 after the rise −20% 96 after the fall The 20% fall was taken from 120, not from 100. That is the whole of it.

How to Use This Tool

Enter a starting value and a list of percentage changes. Each one is applied to the result of the last, which is what actually happens and is not what adding them up gives you.

Why percentages multiply

A 20% rise means multiplying by 1.20. Two of them is 1.20 × 1.20 = 1.44, so the total is 44%, not 40. The extra 4 points are the growth on the growth — the second rise applies to the amount the first one added as well as the original.

The same reasoning explains the more surprising case. Up 20% then down 20% is 1.20 × 0.80 = 0.96, leaving you 4% down. The fall is a fifth of 120, which is 24, while the rise was only a fifth of 100, which is 20. Equal percentages taken from unequal bases are unequal amounts.

The recovery asymmetry

This is where it stops being an arithmetic curiosity. To undo a loss you need a proportionally larger gain, and the gap widens fast:

  • Lose 10% → need 11.1% to get back
  • Lose 25% → need 33.3%
  • Lose 50% → need 100%
  • Lose 90% → need 900%

The reason is the same one throughout: after a loss you are compounding from a smaller base, so each percentage point of recovery is worth fewer units than each point of the original loss cost. This is why avoiding large drawdowns matters more than capturing large gains, and why "it fell 50% but then rose 50%" describes ending 25% down.

Recovery is not symmetric with the loss lose 10% need +11.1% lose 25% need +33.3% lose 50% need +100% lose 90% need +900%
Each further point of loss makes the required recovery grow faster than linearly.

The per-period average

The last panel shows the single steady rate that would produce the same final result over the same number of periods — the geometric mean, or in a financial context the compound annual growth rate. It is not the average of the percentages, and the difference matters.

Returns of +50% then −50% average to 0% arithmetically, and the geometric mean is −13.4%, which is what actually happened to the money. Whenever the numbers vary, the arithmetic mean of percentage changes overstates performance, and it overstates it more the more volatile the series is.

Where this shows up

  • Stacked discounts. "20% off, then a further 10% off" is 28% off, not 30, because the second discount applies to the already reduced price.
  • Compound interest. The entire mechanism, and the reason a small rate over a long period beats intuition.
  • Inflation over several years. Adding annual rates understates the cumulative effect.
  • Growth targets. "10% a month" is 214% a year, not 120%.
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Frequently Asked Questions

Is two 20% increases the same as one 40% increase?
No, it is 44%. The second increase applies to the already-increased amount, so you multiply 1.20 by 1.20 rather than adding. The extra 4 percentage points are the growth on the growth, which is exactly what compounding means.
If something rises 20% then falls 20%, am I back where I started?
No, you are 4% down. The fall is taken from the larger post-rise figure, so it removes more than the rise added — a fifth of 120 is 24, while a fifth of 100 was only 20. Equal percentages applied to unequal bases are unequal amounts.
How much gain do I need to recover a loss?
More than the loss, and disproportionately more as the loss grows. Losing 10% needs 11.1% to recover, 25% needs 33.3%, 50% needs 100% and 90% needs 900%. After a loss you are compounding from a smaller base, so each point of gain is worth fewer units than each point of loss cost.
Why can't I just average percentage changes?
Because the arithmetic mean ignores compounding and overstates the result whenever the numbers vary. Returns of +50% then −50% average to zero arithmetically while the money is actually down 13.4%. The geometric mean, shown here as the per-period average, is the rate that reproduces the real outcome.
How do stacked discounts work?
They multiply too. 20% off followed by a further 10% off is 0.80 × 0.90 = 0.72, so 28% off in total rather than 30%. The second discount applies to the already-reduced price, which is why stacked offers are always slightly less generous than they sound.
What is CAGR?
The compound annual growth rate: the single steady annual rate that would take you from the starting value to the final one over the same number of years. It is the geometric mean of the yearly growth factors, and it is the honest way to summarise a variable series in one number.

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