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📊 Math & Statistics

Two Readings and a Clock Beat Any Built-In Estimate

A progress bar extrapolates from the last instant. Measuring over a longer window is the whole reason a manual estimate is better.

Time to target

Finishes at

by your device clock

Rate

 

Full range

0 to 100 at this rate

Milestones from here

How much your measuring window matters

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How the calculation works

Same job, different measuring window last 10 seconds 2 min left swings every refresh last 4 minutes 10 min what happens 12 min Nothing progresses at a constant rate. A longer window is a better guess, not a promise.

How to Use This Tool

Note a percentage, wait, note it again, and enter the minutes between. Longer gaps give better answers, which is the whole point.

The arithmetic

Rate is the change in percentage divided by the time it took. Remaining time is the distance to your target divided by that rate.

A battery going from 80% to 65% in 30 minutes is losing 0.5 percentage points a minute, so reaching 10% takes another 110 minutes — an hour and fifty. Charging from 20% to 55% in 25 minutes is gaining 1.4 points a minute, so 80% arrives in another 17.9 minutes.

Why the built-in estimate is worse

A progress bar or battery indicator usually extrapolates from a very short recent window — the last few seconds. That makes it responsive and extremely noisy, because almost nothing progresses at a constant rate:

  • File transfers race through one large file and crawl through ten thousand small ones, because per-file overhead dominates when the files are tiny.
  • Batteries drain at whatever the current load demands, and the relationship between the percentage shown and the charge remaining is not linear anyway.
  • Installers and builds often have no idea what fraction of the work is done and are reporting steps completed rather than time.

Measuring over ten or thirty minutes averages all that out. It is still an extrapolation and it is a far steadier one.

Charging is not linear either — typical figures 20% → 55% 1.40 %/min 80% → 95% 0.35 %/min A rate measured in the fast part badly underestimates the time to 100%. Measure across the region you actually care about.
Same battery, same charger. The rate is a property of where you are, not of the device.

Where a straight line is most wrong

Linear extrapolation is a good approximation in the middle and a poor one at the ends.

  • Charging above 80% slows sharply, so a rate measured from 20% badly underestimates the time to full.
  • The last few per cent of a battery often drop faster than the arithmetic suggests, partly because the gauge is recalibrating rather than because the chemistry changed.
  • The last percent of a transfer is frequently verification, flushing buffers or cleanup, which the percentage never accounted for.

The practical version: take your two readings inside the region you actually care about. Estimating the time from 80% to 100% works much better if both readings were above 80%.

Reading it honestly

This produces a point estimate from two data points, which is the least information from which an estimate can be made at all. It has no error bars and no knowledge of what happens next.

If a decision depends on it — catching a train, leaving a laptop unattended — take a third reading and see whether the answer moved. A stable estimate across two windows is worth something; one that halves each time you measure is telling you the rate is not steady.

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Frequently Asked Questions

How do I estimate how long a battery will last?
Note the percentage, wait, note it again, and divide the change by the minutes elapsed. Going from 80% to 65% in 30 minutes is 0.5 points a minute, so reaching 10% takes another 110 minutes.
Why is my progress bar estimate so unreliable?
Because it extrapolates from the last few seconds, and almost nothing progresses at a constant rate. A transfer races through large files and crawls through small ones, so the short window makes the estimate responsive and extremely noisy.
How long will it take to charge to 80%?
Take two readings while charging and divide. Going from 20% to 55% in 25 minutes is 1.4 points a minute, putting 80% about 18 minutes away — but charging slows sharply above 80%, so a rate measured low will underestimate the time to full.
Why does the last 1% take so long?
Because it is usually not the same work. The final stretch of a transfer is often verification, buffer flushing or cleanup that the percentage never counted, and the last few per cent of a battery gauge frequently involves recalibration.
How far apart should my two readings be?
As far apart as your patience allows, and both inside the region you care about. A longer window averages out short bursts; readings taken during a fast phase will not describe a slow one.
Can I trust the answer?
It is a point estimate from two data points, with no error bars and no knowledge of what comes next. Take a third reading — if the answer stays put it is worth something, and if it halves each time you measure, the rate is not steady.

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