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💰 Financial & Currency

At the Same Tax Rate, Roth and Traditional Come Out Exactly Equal

Most calculators compare 7,000 against 7,000, which is not the same sacrifice. Invest the Traditional's tax refund too and the difference vanishes to the cent.

Roth, spendable

 

Traditional, spendable

 

Difference

 

Break-even retirement rate

 

The fair comparison, worked through

What happens at other retirement tax rates

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How the calculation works

7,000 a year, 7% for 30 years, tax saving invested 24% now, 24% later Roth 53,286 Trad 53,286 identical 24% now, 12% later Roth 53,286 Trad 59,680 12% now, 24% later Roth 53,286 Trad 46,891 The gap is 6,394 either way, and it is symmetric because only the change in rate matters. Compare 7,000 against 7,000 instead and Roth appears to win by 12,789 even at equal rates.

How to Use This Tool

Enter what you contribute, how long it grows, and your marginal tax rate now and in retirement. The Traditional side invests its tax saving too, which is what makes the comparison meaningful.

The comparison almost everyone makes is not a comparison

Putting 7,000 into a Roth and 7,000 into a Traditional are not equivalent acts. The Roth 7,000 comes out of money you have already paid tax on. The Traditional 7,000 comes out of pre-tax income and hands you a refund — 1,680 at a 24% rate — which the usual comparison silently spends.

7,000, 7% for 30 years, 24% now and 24% later

The usual comparison
  Roth                        53,286
  Traditional                 40,497
  Roth "wins" by              12,789

The fair comparison
  Roth                        53,286.00
  Traditional after tax       40,497.20
  1,680 tax saving, grown     12,788.59
  Traditional total           53,285.79
The tax rate never changed, so the honest answer was always "no difference"

The remaining 21 cents is floating-point rounding. In exact arithmetic the two are the same number, and you can see why by writing them out. With contribution C, return r, years n, and one tax rate t:

Roth          C x (1+r)^n

Traditional   C x (1+r)^n x (1-t)      the account, taxed on the way out
            + C x t x (1+r)^n          the refund, invested
            = C x (1+r)^n x [(1-t) + t]
            = C x (1+r)^n
Multiplication commutes, so paying the tax first or last cannot matter

So what does decide it

Only the difference between your rate now and your rate then, and it is symmetric. Going from 24% to 12% puts Traditional ahead by 6,394. Going from 12% to 24% puts Roth ahead by exactly the same 6,394. Everything else — the return, the years, the amount — scales both sides together.

Which means the question is not "which account is better" but "will my marginal rate be higher or lower when I withdraw". Higher earners near the peak of their career usually expect lower; someone early in their career, or expecting rates to rise, usually expects higher.

The real Roth advantage is the contribution limit

Contribution caps are set in nominal money, and that quietly favours Roth. At a 24% rate, 7,000 of post-tax money is the equivalent of 7,000 / 0.76 = 9,211 of pre-tax income. So a Roth lets you shelter about 32% more purchasing power under the same headline limit.

This only matters if you are actually hitting the cap. If you contribute less than the maximum, you could always have put more into the Traditional instead, and the advantage disappears.

What this model leaves out

The side account is treated as growing tax-free, which no taxable account does — dividends and realised gains get taxed along the way, which drags it and tilts the real answer towards Roth. Working the other way, Traditional withdrawals fill the lower brackets rather than being taxed entirely at your top rate, which flatters Traditional. Required minimum distributions, state taxes, employer matching, and the effect of retirement income on other benefits are all absent.

This is general information, not tax or financial advice. Contribution limits and bracket thresholds change every year, so check the current figures before acting on any of it.

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Frequently Asked Questions

Is Roth or Traditional better?
Neither, if your marginal tax rate is the same now as in retirement — with the tax saving invested they produce exactly the same spendable amount. Roth wins if your rate will be higher later, Traditional if it will be lower, and the gap is symmetric.
Why do other calculators say Roth wins?
Because they compare the same nominal contribution on both sides. 7,000 into a Roth is a bigger sacrifice than 7,000 into a Traditional, which leaves you a refund. Ignore that refund and Roth appears to win by 12,789 over 30 years even when the tax rate never changes.
Does a longer time horizon favour Roth?
No. Both sides are multiplied by the same growth factor, so a longer horizon or a higher return scales them together and leaves the ratio untouched. Only the change in tax rate moves the answer.
What is the real advantage of a Roth then?
The contribution limit is set in nominal money, so post-tax dollars shelter more purchasing power. At a 24% rate, 7,000 post-tax is equivalent to 9,211 pre-tax — about 32% more. This only helps if you are actually maxing out your contributions.
Does this account for tax on the side investment?
No, and that is the main simplification. A real taxable account pays tax on dividends and gains, which drags the Traditional side and tilts the true answer towards Roth. Pulling the other way, Traditional withdrawals fill the lower brackets rather than all being taxed at your top rate.
What about employer matching?
Employer contributions generally go into the pre-tax side regardless of what you choose, so they do not usually decide between the two. They do mean most people end up with both kinds of money, which is itself useful for managing the bracket you withdraw into.

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