How to Use This Tool
Project version adoption from the current share and an observed daily percentage-point gain. Teams remove compatibility code based on calendar days even when a large old-version cohort remains.
Why Update Adoption needs more than a raw total
Adoption frequently slows near saturation, so a straight-line rate is most defensible only over a short observed window. For this page, the useful comparison is projected users on new version, not whichever input happens to be largest. The Update Adoption result answers the decision in the heading and should not be reused as a score for a different workflow.
The exact Update Adoption formula
Projected users equal eligible active users × min(100%, current adoption + daily point gain × days). The visible fields are Eligible active users, Current adoption, Daily adoption gain and Days ahead. For Update Adoption, read each printed unit before entry and make the values describe one transaction, cohort or reporting window. If those scopes differ, the displayed projected users on new version may be arithmetically valid but operationally meaningless.
Interpreting projected users on new version
Keep fallbacks and server compatibility until both projected share and real version telemetry clear the operational threshold. The ten-percent comparison is deliberately narrow: it tests the influence of eligible active users and is neither a forecast nor a confidence interval. Preserve the values used, their dates and the resulting decision so a later reviewer can reproduce why Update Adoption supported the choice.
What this Update Adoption model leaves out
The model is linear, caps adoption at 100 percent and does not model churn, new installs or forced upgrades separately. That is where Update Adoption stops being trustworthy. If an excluded factor could reverse projected users on new version, extend the model explicitly or use the authoritative account system instead of hiding the factor inside an unexplained adjustment.
Evidence and independent verification
The reference reviewed for Update Adoption is Apple Developer — App Store Connect Analytics. Apple Developer — App Store Connect Analytics supports the named definition or rule but does not supply private values for projected users on new version. Before acting on the result, reconcile the worked example with the relevant dashboard, invoice, export or measurement.
Private, reproducible calculation
Update Adoption runs its arithmetic in the current browser tab and requests no login or API key. That keeps the Update Adoption inputs away from the site's calculation server, while leaving the user responsible for detecting stale data or a changed platform rule. When an assumption changes, reopen Apple Developer — App Store Connect Analytics and rerun the saved Update Adoption scenario.
Sources & assumptions
Tool Spec v2 · verified 2026-08-20. Platform rules and fees can change; the editable inputs remain authoritative for your account.
Official references
- Apple Developer — App Store Connect Analytics (checked 2026-08-20)
Model assumptions
- Every input covers the same reporting period or cohort.
- The model is linear, caps adoption at 100 percent and does not model churn, new installs or forced upgrades separately.
- The calculator uses only the visible fields and does not fetch account data.
