Estimate First Paid Revenue From an App Trial Cohort

How to Use This Tool

Apply conversion and net proceeds to one completed free-trial cohort. Trial starts are celebrated as growth even when only a fraction reaches the first paid transaction.

Why Trial Cohort Revenue needs more than a raw total

Use a completed cohort because recent trials that have not ended make conversion look artificially low. For this page, the useful comparison is first-cycle net proceeds, not whichever input happens to be largest. The Trial Cohort Revenue result answers the decision in the heading and should not be reused as a score for a different workflow.

The exact Trial Cohort Revenue formula

Net proceeds equal completed trial starts × paid conversion × price × proceeds share. The visible fields are Trial starts, Trial-to-paid conversion, First paid price and Net proceeds share. For Trial Cohort Revenue, read each printed unit before entry and make the values describe one transaction, cohort or reporting window. If those scopes differ, the displayed first-cycle net proceeds may be arithmetically valid but operationally meaningless.

Interpreting first-cycle net proceeds

Compare acquisition cost with proceeds from the same cohort, then layer retention only after the first conversion is reconciled. The ten-percent comparison is deliberately narrow: it tests the influence of trial starts and is neither a forecast nor a confidence interval. Preserve the values used, their dates and the resulting decision so a later reviewer can reproduce why Trial Cohort Revenue supported the choice.

What this Trial Cohort Revenue model leaves out

Renewals, grace periods, refunds, taxes, offer eligibility and later churn are excluded from first-cycle proceeds. That is where Trial Cohort Revenue stops being trustworthy. If an excluded factor could reverse first-cycle net proceeds, extend the model explicitly or use the authoritative account system instead of hiding the factor inside an unexplained adjustment.

Evidence and independent verification

The reference reviewed for Trial Cohort Revenue is Apple Developer — Subscription rates. Apple Developer — Subscription rates supports the named definition or rule but does not supply private values for first-cycle net proceeds. Before acting on the result, reconcile the worked example with the relevant dashboard, invoice, export or measurement.

Private, reproducible calculation

Trial Cohort Revenue runs its arithmetic in the current browser tab and requests no login or API key. That keeps the Trial Cohort Revenue inputs away from the site's calculation server, while leaving the user responsible for detecting stale data or a changed platform rule. When an assumption changes, reopen Apple Developer — Subscription rates and rerun the saved Trial Cohort Revenue scenario.